Scottish First Minister John Swinney has cautioned that recent U.S. tariffs could precipitate a recession in Scotland and the broader UK. Despite this economic uncertainty, he maintains that the “time is right” for Scotland to pursue independence.
At a press conference on Monday, Swinney addressed the potential economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff on all UK exports and a 25% global levy on car exports. Although these tariffs have been delayed by 90 days, Swinney emphasized the need for proactive measures to mitigate their impact.
“I can’t say with certainty that a recession will occur, but there’s a risk it might,” he stated. “Therefore, we’ve got to be on the front foot to resist that.”
Swinney argues that independence would grant Scotland greater economic autonomy, enabling it to forge closer ties with the European Union and better navigate global economic challenges. He believes that having full control over economic levers is crucial for acting in the best interests of the Scottish people.
Critics, however, have questioned the timing of renewed independence efforts amid economic instability. Scottish Conservative finance spokesperson Craig Hoy described the push as “utterly reckless,” asserting that it would exacerbate existing economic turbulence.
In response to the tariffs, Swinney has pledged to support affected industries, particularly the Scotch whisky sector, which contributes nearly £1 billion annually to the Scottish economy. He has committed to “leaving no stone unturned” in addressing the concerns of Scottish exporters.
Additionally, Swinney announced that the Scottish Government’s legislative programme will be presented earlier than usual, on May 6, to allow for a “full year of delivery” ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections. This programme aims to address the economic challenges posed by the tariffs and outline the government’s priorities for the coming year.
