Just weeks ahead of the government’s autumn budget scheduled for 26 November, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have abandoned their plans to raise income tax, choosing instead to explore alternative methods of increasing revenue. This decision comes amid fears of backlash from voters and Labour backbenchers, at a time when fiscal pressures remain severe, with estimates of a budget shortfall ranging from £30 billion to £50 billion.
The decision to drop the controversial tax rise, reportedly communicated to the Office for Budget Responsibility mid-week, prevents a breach of Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase income tax, national insurance, or VAT for working people. However, this commitment has been tested by a larger-than-expected fiscal gap revealed in recent forecasts, leaving the Chancellor under pressure to find new ways to meet the government’s debt and spending targets without deep cuts to capital investment or public services.
With the income tax hike off the table, the Chancellor is now expected to freeze income tax thresholds for an additional two years beyond 2028, which could potentially raise around £8 billion. Simultaneously, she is considering smaller increases elsewhere, targeting higher-rate taxpayers, pensioners, landlords, and possibly adjusting the two-child benefit cap, though no firm details have yet been announced.
Opposition parties and Conservative MPs have swiftly called for clarity on whether further tax rises are imminent. Conservatives criticise economic uncertainty and alleged political mismanagement at Downing Street, while Liberal Democrats advocate a windfall tax on banking profits to alleviate financial pressures on families. Meanwhile, internal divisions within Labour have surfaced, with warnings that breaking manifesto pledges could erode public trust in politics.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves commented: “It is important that people understand the circumstances we are facing, the principles guiding my choices – and why I believe they will be the right choices for the country.”
Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasised the government’s approach: “We will take the tough but fair choices on tax so everyone, including businesses and the wealthiest, contributes their share to fund our public services.”
Starmer and Reeves now face the challenge of closing the fiscal gap without breaking their electoral promises or resorting to unpopular spending cuts – an issue set to define their leadership ahead of the next general election. The spotlight will fall on the upcoming budget announcements for clarity on which taxes, if any, will rise, and how the government intends to balance competing priorities amid continuing economic headwinds.
