Europe could face significant fuel shortages within weeks, as escalating disruption in the Middle East continues to tighten global energy supplies, according to a stark warning from Shell.
Wael Sawan, the oil giant’s chief executive, cautioned that supply pressures are already compelling parts of Asia to reduce energy usage, with the impact anticipated to reach Europe imminently.
Speaking on the unfolding crisis, Sawan articulated a clear progression of the energy crunch.
“It is a ripple effect,” he stated. “We see south Asia first to get that brunt, that moves to south-east Asia, north-east Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April.”
He underscored Shell’s proactive engagement with governments to prepare for the looming challenges, advising on necessary policy responses. “So we are trying to work with governments to alert them to the levers they may need to pull – including demand-side measures, what they need to do around storage, what they need to do around purchasing stock and so on and so forth.”
The intensifying pressure on global energy markets stems primarily from significant disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. This critical maritime chokepoint, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies typically transit, has experienced an effective halt or sharp decline in shipping traffic since late February 2026, following geopolitical developments involving Iran. This ongoing instability has driven fierce competition for available energy cargoes and propelled prices upwards.
Economies across Asia have already implemented various measures to mitigate the impact, including reduced working weeks and limits on overall energy consumption. European governments may soon face similar difficult decisions to manage demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged member countries to enact measures aimed at reducing consumption, advocating for initiatives such as widespread remote working, lower speed limits on highways, and increased reliance on public transport. The IEA also initiated a historic release of emergency oil reserves to help stabilise markets.
Market reactions have been pronounced, with analysts reporting that oil prices have surged by approximately 40% and gas prices by 60% over the past month. This sharp increase in energy costs is already exerting pressure on households and businesses, with market observers cautioning that a prolonged energy shock could potentially drive the UK towards a recession.
Despite the dire warnings, the UK Government has maintained that the nation’s energy supplies remain “diverse and resilient”. However, industry sources have offered a more cautious outlook, suggesting that widespread physical fuel shortages could become a worst-case scenario if the Middle East conflict continues unabated into the summer months.
In the immediate term, policymakers are anticipated to prioritise less disruptive demand-side interventions, such as guidance on home-working and speed restrictions, before considering more direct interventions in fuel supply.
