Expectations for home sales in Scotland are their highest in over three years, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Residential Market Survey, with a net balance of 50% of respondents expecting the volume of transactions to increase in the three months ahead.
Overall, the Scottish housing market appears to be ending 2024 in relatively good shape, with buyer enquiries and sales still rising, albeit at a slower rate than in the previous month. A net balance of 5% of Scottish surveyors reported an increase in new buyer enquiries in November, down from the 31% seen in October.
With regard to prices, these are also continuing to edge upwards, according to a net balance of 31% of respondents, and respondents expect that trend to continue into 2025, with a net balance of 44% expecting values to rise in the three months ahead.
Supply remains a potential impediment to sales growth though. The survey’s indicator for instructions to sell moved into negative territory in November, though only marginally so at -6% (down from 20% in October).
Looking at the rental market, for the second consecutive month, tenant demand is reported to have fallen flat in Scotland. On the supply side, a net balance of -22% of Scottish respondents reported that landlord instructions fell. When it comes to rental expectations, a net balance of 20% of surveyors in Scotland expect rents to rise over the next three months.
Commenting on the sales market, Richard Clowes, MRICS, of Graham & Sibbald in the Scottish Borders said: “There were reasonable signs of activity in the local markets during November. The cold snap and snow fall towards the end of the month may have put the brakes on the market for the remainder of the year with agents reporting a
slow down in instructions as sellers sit it out until the new year.”
Discussing the rental market, Carolyn Davies, MRICS of Savills in Dumfries added: “There is ongoing quick demand for sensibly priced property, but there are clear signs that rents are reaching peak levels.”
Commenting on the UK picture, RICS Senior Economist, Tarrant Parsons, said: “Although the latest survey results continue to signal a steady improvement in buyer demand across the residential market, the broader macro environment is likely to pose additional headwinds moving forward. Most significantly, the recent rise in mortgage interest rates may curtail the recovery in market activity before long, and this is reflected in the slightly less optimistic sales expectations data coming through this month.
“Moreover, measures of consumer and business confidence across the economy have deteriorated of late and, if sustained, this could begin to feed through into housing market conditions in the months ahead.”
About the data
- Net balance = Proportion of respondents reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall (if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the net balance will be 25%)
- Net balance data is opinion based; it does not quantify actual changes in an underlying variable
- A positive net balance implies that more respondents are seeing increases than decreases (in the underlying variable), a negative net balance implies that more respondents are seeing decreases than increases and a zero net balance implies an equal number of respondents are seeing increases and decreases
