New analysis published this week on High Growth Scotland has highlighted a resilient but increasingly pressured Scottish business landscape, drawing on the latest data from both the Scottish Government’s Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS Scotland) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) subnational report for May 2026.
Writing for High Growth Scotland, David Langstane examined data from Wave 155 of BICS Scotland — published on 13 May 2026 — alongside the ONS’s newly released subnational single-site economy report, which covers the period March 2025 to March 2026. Together, the two datasets offer one of the most comprehensive snapshots yet of business conditions across Scotland’s growth economy. The full analysis can be read at highgrowth.scot.
Scotland Absorbing Costs Rather Than Passing Them On
One of the more striking findings Langstane highlights is Scotland’s subdued selling price inflation. Between March 2025 and March 2026, Scotland recorded the smallest rise of any UK nation in the proportion of single-site businesses reporting that prices of goods and services sold had increased — moving from just 12% to 13%. Northern Ireland, by comparison, saw the largest rise, jumping from 12% to 18%.
This apparent stability may mask a deeper vulnerability. In March 2026, 39.0% of Scottish businesses reported rising input prices — up sharply from 24.2% in February — while 80.1% of Scottish businesses said they were very or somewhat concerned about energy prices as of April 2026.
US Tariffs Hitting Scottish Exporters Hard
The analysis places particular focus on the impact of US tariffs, which are emerging as a material risk for Scotland’s export-dependent sectors. The BICS Scotland data shows 12.5% of all Scottish businesses were impacted by US tariffs in the most recent reporting period — rising to 28.3% among goods exporters. Export costs are also surging, with 51.6% of exporters reporting rising export costs in the year to March 2026, up sharply from 34.8% in December 2025.
Scotland’s food and drink, life sciences and advanced manufacturing sectors — all significant contributors to export revenue — face disproportionate exposure.
Supply Chain Concerns Escalating
Supply chain anxiety is also building. According to the BICS Scotland Wave 155 data, 57.9% of Scottish businesses reported supply chain disruption concerns in April 2026, up from 52.0% in March, with international conflict cited as the top concern by 47.2% of affected businesses.
The findings align with broader sentiment data. The Royal Bank of Scotland Growth Tracker recorded a fresh decline in Scottish private sector business activity at the start of the second quarter, with Judith Cruickshank, Scotland Board Chair at Royal Bank of Scotland, noting: “Continuing geopolitical tensions contributed to increasing inflationary pressure and ongoing market uncertainty, which are difficult headwinds for Scottish businesses.”
A Resilient Core
Despite the headwinds, Langstane’s analysis underlines the underlying strength of Scotland’s scaling businesses. The Scottish BICS data — which covers businesses with 10 or more employees — shows 40.0% of Scottish businesses reported turnover growth in March 2026 compared with the previous month, significantly outpacing the ONS UK single-site average of 15%.
AI adoption also offers a positive signal for Scotland’s competitiveness. As of March 2026, 30.2% of Scottish businesses were using some form of AI technology, rising to 63.9% in the Information and Communication sector — suggesting Scotland’s tech-forward businesses are building a meaningful productivity advantage.
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The Broader Picture
The findings come as separate data from the Scottish Chambers of Commerce reveals that 48% of Scottish firms now cite business rates as a concern — a 20 percentage point increase in a single quarter and the highest level recorded in the past five years. Doug Smith, Vice-President of SCC and Chair of the Scottish Economic Advisory Group, said: “Cost pressures continue to weigh heavily on businesses, with labour costs remaining the dominant concern, and these pressures are feeding through into pricing decisions.”
For high-growth businesses with ambitions to scale in 2026, navigating this environment will increasingly require strategic agility as well as operational resilience.
Data sources: Scottish Government BICS Scotland Wave 155 (May 2026); ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey, Subnational Single-Site Economy, May 2026. Analysis first published on High Growth Scotland.
