Business confidence among Scottish firms has strengthened during the first half of 2026, as companies continue to navigate economic uncertainty while positioning themselves for growth.
According to Bank of Scotland’s latest Business Barometer, confidence rose from 37% in January to 48% in June. While sentiment peaked at 51% in March before easing slightly, June’s figure remains significantly higher than at the start of the year. In contrast, overall UK business confidence held steady at 44% across both January and June, indicating that Scottish firms have become increasingly optimistic relative to the wider UK picture.
The uplift has been driven by growing optimism in both trading prospects and the broader economic outlook. Since January, confidence in firms’ own trading prospects has increased from 53% to 57%, while optimism in the wider economy has nearly doubled, rising from 21% to 40%.
The data suggests that rising confidence is not the result of easing challenges, but rather businesses becoming better equipped to manage them.
Martyn Kendrick, Regional Director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland, said: “The first six months of 2026 have shown the resilience and adaptability that continues to define Scotland’s business community. While confidence has naturally fluctuated from month to month, the overall trend has been positive, with businesses ending the first half of the year in a significantly stronger position than where they began.
“What’s particularly encouraging is that businesses aren’t waiting for uncertainty to pass. Many recognise that global volatility, supply chain disruption and cost pressures are becoming part of the operating environment rather than short-term challenges. They’re responding by taking control of the things they can influence, strengthening their operations, investing in their businesses and planning further ahead.
“That’s why confidence has grown – because it’s increasingly being built on practical action and informed decision-making, rather than optimism alone.”
The June findings, based on a survey of 1,200 UK firms across all regions and sectors, highlight what is driving this shift. In Scotland, 84% of businesses believe they are resilient enough to withstand economic shocks, while 51% expect to achieve growth this year despite continued uncertainty.
Nearly two thirds (62%) have already adjusted their strategies in response to global volatility. Common measures include increasing inventory, implementing cost-saving initiatives and locking in prices to reduce exposure to future disruption.
Kendrick added: “The businesses performing well today aren’t simply reacting to uncertainty, they’re adapting intelligently to it.
“Across Scotland we’re seeing firms make deliberate decisions that strengthen their resilience over the long term. They’re investing in technology, improving productivity, building more resilient supply chains and making greater use of financial planning tools that give them a clearer understanding of their position.
“That financial clarity is incredibly important, as when businesses have confidence in their cashflow and access to the right funding, they’re able to make decisions from a position of strength — whether that’s investing in new opportunities, managing costs or preparing for future growth. It turns uncertainty into something businesses can plan around, rather than simply endure.”
This proactive approach is also reflected in financial management. Six in ten (60%) Scottish firms say they have the right financial tools in place to manage economic shocks, with cashflow forecasting emerging as the most widely used support.
Looking ahead, Scottish businesses remain firmly focused on growth. Key priorities include launching new products and services, investing in technology and AI, and expanding into new markets.
In Case You Missed It:
Kendrick concluded: “Scottish businesses have shown time and again that they can adapt when circumstances change, but what we’re seeing now is resilience becoming a platform for growth rather than simply protection.
“Businesses are locking in costs where it makes sense, investing in innovation and technology, and putting the foundations in place to become more productive and competitive over the long term.
“The improvement in confidence we’ve seen since January reflects businesses that are taking decisive action today so they’re better positioned to seize opportunities tomorrow. That’s an encouraging story for Scotland’s economy and one we expect to continue through the second half of the year.”
