Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, has raised concerns about the potential threat to Scotland’s whisky industry following Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the US presidential election. Swinney, who had previously endorsed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, defended his earlier stance by highlighting the economic risks associated with Trump’s return to office, particularly the possible reimposition of tariffs on Scotch whisky.
Swinney’s Defense and Concerns
In a statement addressing his pre-election endorsement of Harris, Swinney said: “My support for Kamala Harris was not solely based on Donald Trump’s opposition to Scottish independence. There are significant economic factors at play, including the very real threat of the return of punitive tariffs on our whisky exports to the United States.”
Impact of Previous Tariffs
The First Minister went on to detail the effects of the previous “Trump Tariffs” on Scotland’s whisky industry:
- A 25% tariff was imposed on single malt Scotch whisky in October 2019
- Exports to the US fell by 32% over the following year, resulting in a loss of over £500 million in exports1
- The tariffs were part of a wider trade dispute between the US and EU over aircraft subsidies
Industry Concerns
The Scotch Whisky Association has expressed worry about the potential reimposition of tariffs. A spokesperson stated: “The previous tariffs caused significant damage to our industry. Any return to such measures would be devastating for distillers across Scotland, many of whom are still recovering from the last round of tariffs.”
Scotch whisky is a crucial export for Scotland, with the US being the largest market by value. In 2023, whisky exports to the US were worth £1.2 billion, accounting for approximately 22% of all Scotch whisky exports globally.
Looking Ahead
As the industry awaits clarity on Trump’s trade policies, Swinney emphasised the need for diplomatic engagement. He said:
“We will be working closely with the UK government to ensure that Scotland’s interests, particularly those of our whisky industry, are protected in any future trade negotiations with the United States.”
The potential return of tariffs remains a significant concern for Scotland’s whisky industry, with stakeholders hoping for a resolution that will safeguard this vital sector of the Scottish economy.
