New research from Quality Meat Scotland paints a compelling picture of an industry that is not only holding its ground but brimming with untapped potential, if producers, politicians and consumers act together.
Scotland’s red meat sector is delivering record economic value, with consumers doubling down on their loyalty to home-grown beef, lamb and pork, according to a raft of new research from Quality Meat Scotland (QMS). The findings reveal a sector that generated an estimated £3.5 billion of total economic output in 2024 – yet one that faces a critical fork in the road if declining livestock numbers are not urgently reversed.
Scotland’s combined farming and processing output for cattle, sheep and pigs exceeded £2.7 billion in 2024, a 2% rise on the previous year. When the wider ripple effects through supply chains and rural communities are accounted for, the sector’s total economic footprint could have reached £3.5 billion in output and £1.05 billion in Gross Value Added (GVA). Primary red meat processing turnover rose for the fifth consecutive year, lifting 5% to £1.14 billion.
Sarah Millar, Chief Executive of QMS, said: “With record high economic contribution in 2024, the latest data highlights that Scotland’s red meat sector remains a cornerstone of rural communities and a key contributor to the national economy. The evidence continues to reiterate demand for our renowned red meat is strong, with abattoir output rising 5% in 2024 to an estimated £1.14 billion.”
Consumers Are Voting With Their Baskets
When it comes to consumer loyalty, the numbers are striking. New research conducted by Censuswide on behalf of QMS found that nine in ten Scottish shoppers (90%) would still opt for Scottish beef, lamb or pork over cheaper imported alternatives – even if imports were priced 30% lower. Around three-quarters (73%) of respondents said they actively seek out Scottish-produced red meat when shopping at supermarkets or visiting a butcher.
The motivations behind this preference run deep. Supporting Scottish farmers (74%) and the local economy (72%) topped the list of reasons, while superior quality (54%), traceability (54%) and freshness (52%) were also cited as key drivers. As Millar puts it: “This firm commitment includes but goes beyond the high quality, freshness and traceability of our world-renowned produce; with the top reason for this choice being to support our hard-working farmers and the wider Scottish economy. It is heartening to see this societal support and recognition of the wider value our agriculture sector brings across Scotland, including to some of our most remote and rural communities.”
A Supply Gap Scotland Must Fill
Despite this fierce consumer loyalty, concerns are growing that demand could increasingly be met by imported produce. The National Farmers’ Union Scotland’s ShelfWatch report for 2024 recorded a worrying 6% increase in imported red meat on supermarket shelves, while more than 80% of consumers surveyed expressed concern about the UK becoming more dependent on imports.
QMS modelling projects that by 2030, the UK will need an additional 278,000 tonnes of beef per year to meet projected domestic demand. For Scotland to play its full part in closing that gap, it would need to produce an additional 22,000 tonnes of beef annually – requiring an estimated 79,000 more breeding cows in the national herd by the end of the decade. That level of growth alone could add £281 million in annual output and £76 million in GVA to the Scottish economy each year.
Millar said: “We have a unique opportunity to grow Scotland’s beef herd by nearly 80,000 cattle. This isn’t just about economics; it’s about resilience, traceability, quality, and food security. We have the infrastructure and the ambition – but we need a shared commitment from industry, government, and consumers to make it happen.”
The Sheep Sector’s Untapped Potential
New QMS economic modelling presented at Scotsheep 2026 in June reveals that Scotland’s sheep sector alone could add around £77 million in output and £21 million in GVA by 2032, driven by strong demand at home and overseas. The analysis identifies a Scottish supply gap of an additional 4,300 tonnes of sheep meat by 2032 — achievable with a relatively modest 5% increase in lamb numbers, amounting to a few more ewes per holding each year over the next six years.
Kate Rowell, Chair of QMS, said: “Our research shows there is persistent strong demand for Scottish lamb and a significant opportunity to produce and process more at home. The market signals are encouraging, with stronger demand in the UK, a falling EU sheep flock, and a drop in lamb production in England. Combined with significant productivity gains in Scotland over the past decade, we have considerable scope to capture more value from the sector.”
She added: “Demand is strong, the market fundamentals are positive, and Scotland is well placed to respond. The focus now must be on capturing more of that value at home, supporting rural communities and helping drive sustainable economic growth.”
Alec Telfer, Chairman of NSA Scotland, welcomed the findings: “NSA Scotland is delighted to support this work led by QMS, particularly as it is funded by producers and rooted in the needs of the sector. It represents a fantastic opportunity for our industry to respond to clear market demand and to retain more of that value within Scotland.”
The Livestock Numbers Problem
Underpinning the optimism about economic opportunity is an equally urgent warning. Scotland’s beef cow numbers were 3.6% lower in December 2024 than a year earlier, and are now down by nearly 15% over the past decade. The ewe flock fell for a third consecutive year, down 2.3% in June 2024, while calf registrations declined 0.8% in 2024.
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Iain Macdonald, Market Intelligence Manager at QMS and author of the 2025 Red Meat Industry Profile, said: “Despite record finished cattle prices and strong demand for both beef and lamb, the lack of profitability due to persistently high input and labour costs has driven further herd and flock reductions. Elevated interest rates made it costly to service existing loans and invest in the future, while the tight labour market continued to make recruitment difficult and wage costs high.”
He continued: “While the sector’s ability to generate record economic output in 2024 is encouraging, the continued contraction of Scotland’s livestock herds highlights the urgent need for action. Stabilising breeding numbers, improving productivity, and retaining more store animals within Scotland are key steps to protect rural jobs, support food security, and unlock the sector’s full economic potential.”
Beyond domestic demand, Scotland’s red meat reputation abroad has never been stronger. Exports of Scottish red meat and offal exceeded £100 million for the first time in the year to July 2024 – reaching £137 million in total. Scotch Lamb led the charge internationally, accounting for nearly one-third of export revenues. QMS showcased Scotland’s produce at SIAL Paris, one of the world’s premier food trade shows, where the quality, provenance and sustainability of Scotch Beef, Scotch Lamb and Specially Selected Pork drew considerable attention.
