The value of fine and rare single malt Scotch whisky is rapidly declining as appetite from investors and enthusiasts wanes, according to Noble & Co’s annual analysis of the whisky auction market.
The corporate finance boutique’s report takes in over 1.8 million data points from more than 91,000 transactions in the year to 1 October 2024.
The results reveal a 16% year-on-year decline in the volume of secondary whisky sales globally. The average price of a bottle of whisky sold at auction fell from £370 to £363.
However, the volume of fine and rare single malts – defined as whisky sold at auction for more than £1,000 – has declined by 34%, and the corresponding value of those sales by some 40%.
The collapse in value of the world’s rarest and most expensive whisky suggests demand has have been stifled by a weak global economy, inflationary pressures and the threat of rising taxes and US tariffs.
Duncan McFadzean, Head of Food & Drink at Noble & Co, said: “If whisky investors and collectors were in choppy waters last year, this year they’re in the eye of the storm and are battening down the hatches. Top end investors and collectors are very cautious about price and value.
“While there is always room for record-breaking prices for the rarest bottles, the bubble in which fine and rare Scotch whisky has been traded for so long may have finally burst.”
According to Noble & Co, an East-West divide is developing as shifting fiscal regimes in the US and UK diverge from those in China, Japan and Hong Kong.
This may lead to a shift in demand for fine and rare Scotch away from the US and back to Asia.
The UK has the highest minimum tax burden on a bottle of Scotch of any G7 country, and the incoming Trump administration is widely expected to raise tariffs on whisky next year.
Meanwhile, some Asian markets have low and reducing import tariffs. Recently the Hong Kong Government announced a significant reduction to tariffs on spirits imported into the territory, which should significantly benefit premium and luxury whiskies and other high-end spirits.
Duncan McFadzean added: “Fine and rare whiskies have in recent years consistently attracted investors and enthusiasts alike with demand almost always outstripping supply at every purchase point.
“As protectionist strategies take shape in the US, it is possible that future demand for the rarest and finest bottles will materialise in Asian markets.
“Either way, what’s clear is that the secondary market is in a low ebb – the only question left is knowing when it will hit the bottom.”
The Noble & Co analysis found that just nine distilleries with sales of more than 100 bottles in the year increased the volume sold at auction.
The fastest-growing by volume were Longmorn, Brora, Jura and Glen Moray, all of which saw sales increase by more than 25%. By contrast, 49 distilleries with more than 100 bottles sold saw volumes decline this year.
The Macallan remains the most popular distillery in the secondary market, selling 1.5 times as many bottles as its nearest rival, Springbank. It remains the only distillery to sell over 10,000 bottles at auction on the secondary market in a single year.
