Presented with a list of Scottish political party leaders and asked which one they would hire, the most popular choice by business leaders is “none of the above”.
The latest edition of the Understanding Business survey asked 510 company bosses which party leader they would employ in their own business. More than two-in-five (42%) declined all the options put to them.
The current first minister, John Swinney, was the second most popular response, selected by a quarter (24%) of respondents. None of the other party leaders were selected by more than one-in-10 hypothetical recruiters, with Anas Sarwar, Russell Findlay, and Alex Cole-Hamilton selected by nine, seven and five per cent of bosses respectively.
Reflecting on more youthful potential recruits, nearly all respondents (90%) agree that early work experience is vital to helping young people develop workplace skills. However, three-quarters (76%) worry about the lack of job opportunities for young people and a similar proportion (71%) are concerned they therefore lack the necessary skills to succeed.
Understanding Business is a quarterly survey designed and conducted by Diffley Partnership and Charlotte Street Partners. More than 500 senior decision-makers at Scottish firms are asked a range of questions about the prospects for their own organisation, the wider economy, and topical issues in business and politics. The latest results are published on Monday 23 March.
Outlook and business performance expectations weaken
Looking ahead, businesses express deepening concern about the year to come. Just over half (53%) expect general economic conditions to worsen over the next 12 months, a seven-point rise since December. The proportion expecting improvement in general economic conditions has fallen from 31% to 26% and economic uncertainty has become the most significant barrier to business growth, cited by more than four-in-10 businesses (42%), up seven points on the last quarter.
Excluding “don’t knows”, almost two-thirds (62%) of firms anticipate raising their prices in the next three months, with utilities (36%) and fuel costs the most frequently cited drivers of those increases. The latter has risen sharply since December to 28%, a 13-point jump.
Earning expectations showed a clear softening compared with the survey’s previous wave. Fewer business leaders are anticipating revenue growth over the coming year, with less than two-in-five (38%) expecting their turnover to increase (down six points).
Expectations for profitability are similar to those for turnover. Positive sentiment has remained relatively stable, with 38% (down one point on December) expecting profitability to increase. A larger proportion now expect profitability to remain steady (42%, +1), and one-in-five (20%) expect it will drop away, which is unchanged since the last survey.
Scott Edgar, senior research manager at Diffley Partnership, said: “The upward movement in negative expectations highlights a growing belief that the remainder of 2026 is more likely to bring additional challenges than relief. These findings reflect a shift from short‑term uncertainty to more entrenched concern.
“Whereas earlier waves captured a degree of cautious optimism that conditions might stabilise as inflation cooled and markets adjusted, our latest findings suggest many businesses expect headwinds to persist. This pessimism is likely shaped by several underlying factors, including rising operational costs, volatility in fuel and utilities prices, and elevated uncertainty within Scottish, UK and global politics. While businesses are not yet anticipating widespread decline in their own performance, their appetite for predicting growth in earnings and profitability has reduced.”
The survey also found that most business leaders support the Scottish Government’s proposal for a one‑off national bank holiday to celebrate Scotland’s return to the FIFA World Cup finals this summer.
A majority (55%) are in favour of the move to give workers a day off on 15 June. One-fifth (20%) oppose the idea and nearly a quarter (23%) are ambivalent towards it, according to new survey data.
Nearly a third of businesses (31%) anticipate the bank holiday having a positive effect on their business, while one-in-five (19%) foresee a negative impact. Around half (46%) expect no change.
