The war involving Iran is rippling through global tourism, driving up fuel costs, forcing mass flight cancellations and making travellers more hesitant about booking holidays. EU officials have warned that flight cancellations and air fare hikes “will hit holidays” as aviation fuel shortages loom over the peak summer season.
Lufthansa Group has announced plans to cut 20,000 mainly short‑haul flights through to October as it battles soaring jet fuel costs and fears over supply. The airline said the cancellations would save “approximately 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel, the price of which has doubled since the outbreak of the Iran crisis.”
In a statement, Lufthansa said it expected a “largely stable fuel supply” over the summer but stressed it was pursuing “a range of measures” including “the physical procurement of jet fuel as well as price hedging” to manage the shock. The first wave of cuts, 120 daily flights between now and the end of May, has already been announced, with more reductions to follow into the autumn.
Across Europe, airlines are issuing similar warnings. EU officials say the continent faces a “very serious crisis” as aviation fuel supplies begin to dwindle due to the conflict. Analysts quoted in regional media warn that “further cancellations and price increases are imminent” if the jet fuel crunch worsens.
Fares surge and EU warns holidays will be hit
With aircraft forced to reroute around closed or restricted airspace and absorb higher fuel bills, ticket prices are already rising sharply. European regulators and consumer groups say average air fares are up by double‑digit percentages, with one EU briefing noting that “flight cancellations and air fare hikes will hit holidays” if the situation continues.
British and European holidaymakers are being warned to brace for a summer of “chaos” if fuel shortages deepen, with one warning describing it as an “all of Europe” issue because around three‑quarters of the continent’s jet fuel is imported from the Middle East. “The fuel shortage could drastically impact availability and lead to sharp price increases,” another briefing warns.
Europe’s largest travel operator, Tui Group, has already felt the impact, reporting that the Iran war has cost it about €40 million in a single month and forced the repatriation of thousands of customers and staff. The company said the conflict has made holidaymakers more cautious, with “customers [showing] increased caution and booking closer to departure dates” across its markets, airlines and hotels businesses.
Tui has suspended its revenue guidance for the year and cut its profit outlook, warning that bookings and hotel occupancy for this summer are around 7% lower than last year. It added that the geopolitical backdrop has seen “some of its customers shift demand from eastern Mediterranean destinations to more western holiday locations”, with travellers favouring western Europe over Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt as the war weighs on demand well beyond the immediate conflict zone.
Tourism flows rerouted
The shock is being felt on both sides of the Mediterranean. Tourism officials in Switzerland say fewer visitors are coming from Asia and the Middle East because flights via Gulf hubs such as Dubai have been cancelled. “This is all the more unfortunate because it is currently the high season in the Gulf states and also in India or South‑East Asia for travel to Europe and Switzerland,” a Switzerland Tourism spokesman said.
In Zurich, the impact is already visible. “Feedback from the catering sector, retail and other tourist services shows that the absence of international guests was already noticeable in March,” said Thomas Wüthrich, director of Zurich Tourism. In central Switzerland, about two‑thirds of businesses report a “declining booking trend”, with hotels that rely heavily on group travellers from Asia and guests from the Gulf states “particularly affected,” according to Hotellerie Suisse.
Meanwhile, VisitBritain figures show flight bookings from the Middle East to Great Britain have dropped by about 50% since the war started, with bookings from India down by a third. The tourism body says tourists are “still waiting to see how the situation develops”, leaving bookings for the summer and autumn significantly below last year’s levels.
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A difficult summer ahead for tourism
Industry bodies warn that the Iran war has created the most challenging environment for travel and tourism since the pandemic, combining geopolitical risk with an energy shock and fragile consumer finances. The World Travel & Tourism Council has estimated that the conflict is already costing the global sector hundreds of millions of dollars a day in lost international tourism spending.
For now, airlines and tour operators are cutting capacity, reshaping networks and offering greater flexibility on rebooking and destination changes in an effort to keep people travelling. But with EU officials warning of a “very serious crisis” in aviation fuel and carriers openly acknowledging that they are cancelling flights to conserve supplies, the peak season is likely to be marked by higher prices, tighter capacity and more last‑minute changes than usual.
