- AVERAGE Scottish house prices in September up by £965 in month
- Prices grow £2,260 over year compared to England and Wales (down £12,750)
- Transactions are 13% lower than in 2022
- Glasgow has highest (mainland) % price increase since pandemic start
- Average Scottish house price now £224,497, 0.4% up on August, up 1% annually
Scott Jack, Regional Development Director at Walker Fraser Steele, commented:
“In September, our data shows an increase in the average house price of just over £2,000 (or 1.0%) in Scotland over the last 12 months. This is 0.4% higher than August’s 0.6% growth rate. Prices appear to be stabilising for now.
“Sixteen of the thirty two local authorities have reported a positive movement in prices over the previous twelve months. However, transactions in the Scottish housing market this year are now 13% lower than in the same nine months in 2022.
“There are several factors underpinning this market. The affordability issues faced by buyers with much higher costs of mortgage finance have affected transaction levels across the UK generally. The number of properties coming to the market remains relatively low, with sellers holding steady for a fuller recovery. However, demand in some areas continues to outpace supply, resulting in a slight upward pressure on prices overall.
“Looking forward, any positive changes in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, due this month, to support the housing market in England and Wales may give impetus to changes in Scotland which could in turn encourage a more positive outlook.”
September’s housing market
Commentary: John Tindale, Acadata Senior Housing Analyst
Scotland’s average house price rose by £965 – or 0.4% – in September, and now stands at a new record level of £224,497. This was the third-largest monthly increase of 2023 – the highest monthly increases having been in April and May during the traditional ‘spring housing bounce’. There were 16 Local Authority areas with price rises in the month, and 16 with price falls – the same pattern as in August. However, unlike August, both Glasgow and Edinburgh saw prices move in the same direction in September, with rises of 1.0% and 0.1% respectively – and given that these two cities account for 22% of the housing market in Scotland, it is not surprising that Scotland’s overall average price has increased.
Looking at the movement in average prices compared to twelve months earlier, there has been a gain of £2,260, or 1.0%, in Scotland over the year. This increase can be contrasted with a fall of -£12,750, or -3.4%, in the England and Wales average house price over the same period. In fact, all nine regions in England and Wales have experienced a price fall over the twelve months, with the largest % fall seen in the East of England, at -4.8%.
Similar to the monthly figures, there were 16 Local Authority Areas with price rises for the twelve months ending September 2023, and 16 with price falls. Taking a simple average of the top 16 areas by value, there is an increase of 1.6% in average values compared to only a 0.1% increase in the bottom 16 areas by value. It can therefore be concluded that it is the higher value areas in Scotland that have experienced the majority of the price gains over the last twelve months.
Annual change
The average house price in Scotland in September 2023 has increased by some £2,250, or 1.0%, over the last twelve months, which is 0.4% higher than the 0.6% growth rate in August, one month earlier. This represents the third successive rise in the annual rates of growth, over the last three months, despite the economic headwinds of 2023.
In September 2023, 16 of the 32 local authorities were reporting a positive movement in prices over the previous twelve months, compared with 18 in August.
In September, Na h-Eileanan Siar saw the highest increase in its annual rate of price growth, at 20.4%, which was assisted by the sale of a £680,000 detached home on the Isle of North Uist, the most expensive property to be sold in Na h-Eileanan Siar since January 2022. On the mainland, the local authority with the highest growth was East Dunbartonshire, with average prices up by 10.0% over the year. All property types in East Dunbartonshire, except for detached, have seen their average prices increase over the year, especially terraces where the average price has increased from £210k in September 2022 to £255k twelve months later. The average price of a terraced home in East Dunbartonshire is ranked the third-highest among the 32 Local Authority Areas in Scotland.
Meanwhile, on the mainland, East Ayrshire had the largest fall in prices over the last twelve months, at -8.2%. In East Ayrshire, all property types – except for terraces – saw prices fall over the year. At an average price of £130k, East Ayrshire is ranked 28th out of 32 by way of its terraced property values, which contrasts markedly with East Dunbartonshire, as noted above.
Monthly change
In September 2023, Scotland’s average house price rose by almost +£1,000, or +0.4%, which contrasts with the minor +£80, or 0.0%, change in prices seen in August. This is the third-highest monthly increase in prices of the last fourteen months.
In September 2023, 16 of the 32 Local Authority areas in Scotland experienced rising prices in the month, the same number as in August. The area with the largest monthly price increase was Stirling, up by 6.6%, assisted by the sale of Scotland’s second-highest priced property in September, a 4- bedroom detached home in Mugdock, Milngavie which sold for £2.3 million. Milngavie is perhaps best known for its reservoirs and “The Waterworks”, which are the primary source of water for the City of Glasgow.
For interest, the most expensive home purchased in Scotland in September was a five-bedroom, fivebathroom property on Cleveden Drive, in the West End of Glasgow, which changed hands for £3.25 million. It is good to know that top-end residences are still capable of being sold in today’s market.
